Level 2 DEM03 - Baseline Forecast

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Occasional Contributor

Level 2 DEM03 - Baseline Forecast

Hi,

 

I have recently started my Level 2 and was wondering if someone could offer me some guidance.

 

I'm currently working through sprint 2 but I'm struggling with the formulas for the Baseline forecast FY21.

 

This is what I have so far.

 

Baseline Forecast - IF 'SYS01 Time Settings By Week'.'1st Forecast Year?' THEN 'DAT03 Historic Volumes'.'Offset Volumes for 1st Forecast Year' ELSE 'SYS01 Time Settings By Week'.'2nd Forecast Year?' THEN OFFSET('DAT03 Historic Volumes'.'Offset Volumes for 1st Forecast Year',52,0)*1.1

 

Would someone help me with where i'm going wrong? I've looked at Anapedia for help, but I'm still quite stuck.

Thanks in advance.

7 REPLIES 7
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Contributor

Re: Level 2 DEM03 - Baseline Forecast

@TomQueens- Welcome to Level 2!

So full disclosure - I am trying to wrap up Sprint 3 of Level 2 so please don't consider me a "Master Anaplanner".

But a couple of questions that might help you:

1.  What are you seeing that makes you think that your formula is incorrect?  My hunch is that you are not seeing values in FY21.  If that is the case, you should look at the parameters that OFFSET utilizes, specifically the offset value itself.  Read th first paragraph in Anapedia closely.

2.  Why are you multiplying by 1.1?  Remember, this is the baseline forecast...I don't think it should take into account any growth rate.

 

Hopefully this helps

 

David 

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Occasional Contributor

Re: Level 2 DEM03 - Baseline Forecast

Thank you David,

 I looked over OFFSET on Anapedia and it makes a lot more sense now. I also went back and read over what is needed in the baseline forecast so I took out the multiplication

Appreciate your help! 

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Master Anaplanner/Community Boss

Re: Level 2 DEM03 - Baseline Forecast

@TomQueens 

 

I think the formula is incorrect at two places

 

1. If you are pulling the numbers forward (for example in Baselines) - You need to reverse the sign of 52 in OFFSET

2. Else statements should simply say keep it zero

Occasional Contributor

Re: Level 2 DEM03 - Baseline Forecast

Hi Misbah,

 

I have changed my formula to the following: 

IF 'SYS01 Time Settings By Week'.'1st Forecast Year?' THEN 'DAT03 Historic Volumes'.'Offset Volumes for 1st Forecast Year' ELSE IF 'SYS01 Time Settings By Week'.'2nd Forecast Year?' THEN OFFSET('DAT03 Historic Volumes'.'Offset Volumes for 1st Forecast Year',-52,0) ELSE 0

 

But I am now getting a time range error. Would best practice be adjusting DEM03 to match the same time ranges as DAT03?

Thanks for your help

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Contributor

Re: Level 2 DEM03 - Baseline Forecast

You have put two then statements. Try removing that.

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Certified Master Anaplanner

Re: Level 2 DEM03 - Baseline Forecast

Hi @TomQueens 

I hope you found the answer you were looking for and moved ahead, if not then read on.
First, let's go back to the requirement 

image.png

We have 3 FYs in play here:

  1. FY 19. This is actual historical data from the past and we don't need - or shouldn't - change it.
  2. FY 20 which is our 1 st forecasting year (current/base year)
  3. FY 21 which is the 2nd forecasting year.

The "issue" we are trying to address is to find a base forecast for the base forecast year FY20 only

  • The exercise suggested that you use the same data from FY19 and preserve seasonality. You have actually calculated this Base Forecast value in another module (Historical). I hope you used the right sign for the 52 to determine you want to read from the prior year

 

Now look at the last bullet point of the instructions

  • If it is the first forecast year, then offset the values from the volumes 52 weeks earlier, else 0. 

It is directing you to how to get the base forecast - which is only for the base forecast year/1st forecast year/FY20

Any other values are not considered Base Forecast and the value should be 0 as instructed.

 

I hope that helps you and/or anyone who might be having the same question.

Einas
"Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime"
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New Contributor

Re: Level 2 DEM03 - Baseline Forecast

Hello Einas,

I read your explanation below and found it really useful. I tried to follow the steps and input the following formula the the 'Baseline Forecast' account:

IF 'SYS01 Time Settings By Week'.'1st Forecast Year?' THEN 'DAT03 Historic Volumes'.Offset Volumes for 1st Forecast Year ELSE 0

But this still returns an error 😞

Any tips you can offer where I am still going wrong?

Many thanks!
Ben