Deloitte’s Feature Film Title Planning Model is a financial model used for forecasting potential future revenue and expense streams (also known as Ultimates) that represent the worldwide distribution of a film. Projecting financials for film distribution is a complex process involving multiple revenue streams such as domestic and international box office, DVD sales, internet rentals, pay TV revenues, and free TV revenues.
The Create Title Planning Assumptions for Ultimate dashboard allows the user to enter assumptions for genre, box office, margin percent, and release date.
The Plan Box Office Revenue dashboard allows the user to change assumptions for release dates and box office margins by country.
The Plan Box Office Prints and Advertising dashboard allows the user to change assumptions for prints and advertising costs by country.
The Plan Home Entertainment dashboard allows the user to change assumptions for DVD and Bluray conversion rates, which drive the level of Home Entertainment sales by country.
The Title Curve Forecast dashboard shows the timing of revenue streams for each title based on release dates and box office estimates.
The film genre, such as Action or Drama, is a major input for estimating the box office for a planned title. The model allows the user to select a genre for each title and one or several historical box office comparables for each title. The model then automatically calculates a US and International box office estimate, which can be adjusted by the user.
Revenue Curve Fitting by Day
An important requirement of film title planning is the ability to forecast box office by day for the first 180 days after a film is released. Since the bulk of box office usually occurs in the first three weeks, the model has a revenue curve that is automatically applied to the estimated box office to forecast the timing of box office revenues. The model has similar curves for home entertainment, internet, and television revenues.
Film Release Planning by Country
A requirement of film title planning is the ability to forecast revenue for multiple release dates in different countries, and in local currency. The model automatically calculates regional shares of the total international box office based on historical percentages by genre, and also calculates different box office revenue curves based on each release date.
Forecasting of Multiple Revenue Streams
In order to calculate a revenue Ultimate (a ten-year total of all revenues related to a film), the film title planning model must have the capacity to generate forecasts for multiple revenue streams. The model currently forecasts revenues for DVD, Blu-Ray, internet, pay TV, and free TV revenue streams based on the box office estimate.
Forecasting of Distribution Costs
In addition to revenue streams, there are two major costs usually related to a film release - Print Costs (either 35mm or digital) and Advertising. The title planning model generates forecasts for both of these costs based on the size of the film release, and also calculates a distribution expense curve with timing prior to the planned release date.
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