Patient-Based and Statistical Sales Forecasting

mark_godfrey
Super Contributor

 

The patient-based sales forecasting app for the Pharma industry combines a driver-based approach with statistical methodologies to forecast sales in different therapeutic areas. This model is able to forecast the number of eligible patients and translate them into volumes using either an incidence or a prevalence patient based model. Through advanced forecasting analytics, end-users simulate a market share, calculate patient drop-out profiles, apply statistical extrapolation techniques, and are able to perform what-if scenarios. In the financial part of the model you are able to add prices and discounts, consolidate key metrics at different levels and review outcomes through e.g. a price-volume analysis, a cross-country comparison and consolidation, or a scenario analysis dashboard.

 

Features

Build-in patient-based models by therapeutic area
  • Prevalence and incidence patient-based models (product or segment specific) starting from the epidemiology data of a region
  • Patient drop-out profile calculation and cross line reduction of patients in different treatment lines
  • Competitive landscape analysis by product, segment and indication
  • Eligible patient derivation based on key drivers and mathematical algorithms Volume derivation
Market share uptake simulator
  • Calculation of the uptake curve to peak market share based on assumptions as: launch period, peak period, peak share, uptake speed (gamma)
  • Shaping a decline curve after an onset period resulting in a final market share for the product
  • Overwrite possibility on the leaf level
  • Multiple uptakes and scenario’s possible
Scenario planning
  • Possibility to run different model-specific scenario’s in the patient-based models
  • Flexibility to assign for each patient-based model a scenario to the base, best and worst case (reported) scenario
  • Flexibility to add different number of scenario’s to the different patient-based models
Statistical forecasting techniques
  • Calculate volumes based on historical data using different statistical methodologies (Linear regression, logarithmic regression, decomposition, …)
  • Seasonality and outlier analysis
  • Calculation of the best fitting methodology for each brand and each formulation using forecasting accuracy metrics (as MAPE).
Price-volume analysis
  • Breakdown of the year over year sales differences in volume, price and/or mix variances compared with prior year by product by country and by formulation
  • Price-Volume comparison across different version.
Country consolidation and country comparison analysis
  • Patient-based model driver comparison across different regions. KPI Consolidation dashboard with detailed country information, portfolio breakdown in different brands, …
  • Volumes, price and sales analysis (indexed numbers, trend analysis, gross vs net analysis, …)

Information

Size
1.5 GB
Language
English
Terms & Conditions

App stats

Modules
50
Roles
2
Formulas
539
Reports
36
Complexity
Master

Deloitte

Deloitte United States

30 Rockefeller Plaza

New York, NY 10112-0015

United States

Website: https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en.html

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Deloitte Japan

Marunouchi Building, 2-4-1 Marunouchi

Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6390

Japan

Website: https://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/about-deloitte/articles/dtc/dtc.html

 

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Deloitte Brussels

Gateway, Luchthaven Nationaal 1 J, 1930

Zaventem, Belgium

Website: http://www.deloitte.com

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Deloitte Australia

225 George St

Sydney, New South Wales 2000

Australia

Website: http://www.deloitte.com.au