Simple and Effective Way to Present Forecast Evaluation Metrics

timothybrennan

Predictive forecasting tools like PlanIQ can create incredible opportunities for businesses. If we want the outputs of a forecast model to create value, it's critical that we evaluate the model and present information about its performance in an elegant way that is easy for planners to understand.

 

I spent some time putting together a simple dashboard that is both information-rich and easy to consume.

 

I've attached a video walkthrough along with some thoughts.  Let me know what you think!

 

Simple_Forecast_Evaluation_Dashboard_125389.mp4

andre.lie

Hi @timothybrennan ,

 

It is a great dashboard.

 

I understand PlanIQ will do cross validation based on (historical) Data Collections used to train the model (and hence we get all those forecast accuracy metrics once the model fitting is done). As the dashboard shows dynamic metrics based on evaluation horizon, I am not sure about the timing we can do this analysis.

 

- Does it mean that we need to hold some data and exclude them from the Data Collections and build the MAPE calculation manually in Anaplan module outside PlanIQ?

 

- As the forecast results generated by PlanIQ  are the out-of-sample forecast, does it mean that we can only do this evaluation horizon metrics analysis after the actuals are available, so for 6-week evaluation horizon, we need to wait for another 6 weeks for the actuals to be available.

 

Regards

Andre