Simulation and Forecasting

Rajasekhar
Rajasekhar
in Modeling

Hi,

 

I have got a requirement of having my Actuals in Qtrs, Forecast for the year, Budget- Budget formation in Q3, Budget validation in Q4, Budget Figure 1 in Q1 of next year.

Please suggest if I need to do my switch over (If yes on which months) or do I need to create a version list with Actuals, Budget , forecast and load my data. If yes, in which months do I need to copy my actuals into forecast.

 

Also for creating Simulation scenarios, do you suggest that I need to create actions for copying actuals data into Simulation version or create override line items in each module allowing the user to override.

 

Regards,

Rajsekhar

 

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Comments

  • michael.chefer
    michael.chefer

     

     

    @Rajasekhar 

     

    Given the very specific requirement of your versions, you'll want to create a version lists to manage them instead of using switchover and native versioning. 

  • einas.ibrahim
    einas.ibrahim

    Hi @Rajasekhar 

     

    I'm not aware of all your business case requirements but here are some answers to points you raised in your post.

     

    It depends really based on how you need to track and analyze the data. 

    • A budget version usually holds a static snapshot of the data that you rarely change as the year progresses.
    • A forecast version is more dynamic. you could simply use a switchover data to blend the actual data with your forecast for increased accuracy. For example, after the switchover date (for example April 1)  your forecast version will include actual data for Jan, Feb and Mar and forecast data for the remaining 9 months. 
    • You could also use a rolling forecast where you reevaluate your forecast after each month or quarter for a specific range of time. For example, a 12-month rolling forecast means that in addition to the actual data before the switchover date, you will have to reevaluate and provide a forecast for the following 12 months.
    • A switchover date is something that you have to adjust every month. Every time you advance the switchover date by a month, for example, that means your forecast version now includes an extra month of the actual date and one month less in the forecast data
    • Finally, you mentioned scenario planning - Simulation Scenarios. The way you do this is by generally following the following steps
      • Finalize the version you wish to test with different scenarios
      • Make sure that the data is driven by input factors, for example the revenue is calculated by multiplying last year's revenue by a growth % rate. or that the COGS are calculated based on multiplying the cost of one unit by the number of units...etc
      • Create a new version - your scenario version.
      • Do a bulk copy of the data in your base version into the scenario version. Now you can 2 identical versions.
      • Change the assumptions in the scenario version, for example, increase or decrease the revenue growth % or the number of units produced. The whole forecast will change based on these changes since the model is built dynamically based on these assumptions.
      • Now you can compare your base version to the scenario version and determine the impact of these "scenario" changes.

    These are some general guidelines on how to utilize Anaplan versions for more flexible and accurate planning. You can do much more.

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