Plan IQ - Prophet Algorithm - End of year Dips

Neerav
Neerav
edited February 2023 in Intelligence

Hi

I have been using prophet to do some forecasting and with my item i have a lot of end of year dips around christmas.

I know IQ has holidays functionality which i have been using.

I have also added a holiday boolean as an explanatory variable to help.

But the forecast is still not diminishing enough on these weeks.

My historical data has a lot of dips around this time so it annoying that prophet not fully picking this up.

As i think prophet treats explanatory variables and related regressors i decided to create a another one where i add in a 1 as a continuous variable and 0 or 0.5 for the weeks where i want the data to dip in future hoping IQ reduces it. But it doesn't seem to be working.

Any tips?

IQ explanatory.PNG


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Answers

  • Neerav
    Neerav

    @EvgyK are you able to provide an ideas?

  • EvgyK
    EvgyK

    @Neerav , thank you for the question.

    Have you tried a similar exercise with MVLR algorithm?

    I could also suggest that you email me directly or via support and I will be happy to get you in touch with our data science team.

    Thank you,

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